GoLearnForex Analysis 10/11/2009
EURUSD and Elasticity by 
EUR/USD:
The EUR now looks poised to continue its breach of resistance and head north to 1.5265. One of the factors that we consider when looking for technical entry and exit points is the speed at which price is moving.
Graphically speaking you can eyeball this by examining how steep a slope is or how long the bars are over a period of time relative to other bars over a similar period of time. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one very common momentum indicator that essentially measures the velocity of price over a period of time.
In the graph below the RSI (lower chart) is considered over bought above 70 and oversold below 30. Between 55 to 70 and the RSI moving up would be an indication of a strong trend. While the RSI headed down between 45 and 30 indicate a weak trend. Notice on the Chart that the green vertical lines highlight RSI crosses above 70 and they were subsequently followed by a retrace in price as apparent in the upper chart.
I liken this to elasticity. If you immediately pull a rubber band backwards or forwards it will shoot the opposite direction at a speed in accordance with the pressure you exerted. However, if you slowly stretch the elastic it can with stand a greater force exerted on it without the need to snap in the opposite direction. Price behaves in a similar fashion. Following most significant violent moves in the market there is usually a correction that takes place. Price was pulled to hard to fast. This has not been the case with EUR thus far which is why it has been able to use a simple moving average for support.
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We have noted on several occasions that the EUR is using the 50 day MA as support for its move upwards. On November 3rd we once again bounced off of the 50 day MA support and we have also retraced the move down after breaking 1.50. This is another notable, once a psychological level, like 1.50 on the EUR, has been broken it becomes less of an obstacle to price appreciation the next go round and sometimes even acts as a spring board for price.
Gold Continues to Hold on To It’s Strong Position by GoLearnForex
Global Equity Markets rallied hard to open the week. This follows the G-20 meeting of Governors in which there was universal commitment to keep liquidity flowing until a sense of self sustaining economies return. This was preceded by the U.S. dismal Unemployment Rate print of 10.2% on Friday. In the U.S today the DJIA was up 203 points to finish the day at 10,226.
On the commodity front Gold showed no signs of letting go of its torrid rise. Intra-day high for Gold touched 1,111.20 before settling back down to 1,104 a gain of nearly $6. Oil was up as well today, gaining $1.86 to close at 79.29.
The Dollar was offered broadly across the board today. The DXY had an intra-day low below 75, but closed the day just above 75. A close below 74.85 would be a strong bear signal for the greenback and with prices at pivotal handles right now across the G-10 we could see a major dollar slide.
A lot of data due out for Tuesday and aside from CPI in the EUR zone not much is going to firm the dollar. Although we heard a lot rhetoric from Central Banks last time FX markets were at these levels in attempt to slow the Dollar slide, I do not think CB’s will flood the market with strong dollar talk this time around.
Upcoming Forex Events for November 10, 2009
EUR German CPI (MoM) Actual 0.10% Forecast 0.10% Previous 0.10%
GBP Trade Balance Forecast -6.20B Previous -6.20B
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Forecast 55.00 Previous 56.00
AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Previous 1.70%
Analysis by http://www.golearnforex.net
